What Should The Next President Of Russia Do To Achieve Peace?
Let’s imagine a scenario where Vladimir Putin is no longer president of Russia. Let’s further imagine that somehow it is not someone even more hawkish or authoritarian who replaces him but instead a gay woman who promotes all Western liberal values. Let’s call her Katia. What does Katia do in regards to Ukraine?
She immediately packs up and leaves Ukraine, obviously, the same way President Obama packed up and left Iraq the moment he replaced George W. Bush. Right? Except that that’s not what happened. So if we admit that it wasn’t so easy for Obama to just stop a war that’s already been started, we can see that it might be difficult for Katia as well, right?
But let’s assume that Katia is far more determined to stop this war than Obama was to stop the Iraq War. What does she do? I would think her first step would be to talk to her counterpart in Ukraine to see about establishing a cease fire. The first step for anyone legitimately interested in peace would be to stop the immediate bloodshed. Details could be worked out later.
Except that it has been apparent from the start that Volodymir Zelensky has said peace talks would only be possible when Russia has entirely left not merely the regions they invaded at the start of the war but Crimea as well. Now this may be a just demand on the part of Zelensky, but it is not a practical one. A leader of a country has many factors and many interests to consider if they are going to endure as a leader for any length of time.
Even the most popular and just of leaders still has to factor in the interests of her military. To shut down a war in which her own military was winning would be tantamount to suicide, at the very minimum at least politically. Furthermore, no matter how much her righteous inclination might be to exit Ukraine immediately, she must keep in mind the families of those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice for their country in the war. For many of them, an immediate withdraw would signify that their children and fathers, husbands and siblings, had died for no reason. While it can most definitely be said that most people who die in wars die for no good reason, it is hard telling the families of fallen soldiers that. Again, it would be political suicide. These are realities that must be understood and factored into the equation.
It does not appear that Zelensky will easily retreat from his absolutist position, since he has already been willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to it, when peaceful compromise was possible well over a year ago. In fact, it was possible that the war never would have started had the Minsk Agreements been upheld. It seems that the only option Zelensky holds open for Russia is complete and utter capitulation. It is not a stance I would personally take with the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, but I’m not going to tell him how to run his country.
So given the fact that no realistic negotiations can take place with Zelensky in terms of a cease fire and peace, what should Katia do? Perhaps talk to the NATO countries that are supporting Ukraine to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. Seeing as how Ukraine would have been forced into complete submission early on if not for the advanced weaponry and intelligence generously provided by NATO nations, maybe they might have some influence with Zelensky.
For sure, U.S. President Joe Biden said there would be no negotiations so long as Putin remained in charge, but now that he is gone and Katia is in charge, the U.S. would be interested in good faith negotiations with someone who wants nothing more than to end the war, right? After all, Biden is a man of his word, isn’t he? He doesn’t want Ukrainians to suffer needlessly. Right?
And here we come to the crux of the matter: Who is Katia to work with? Whose word can she trust? It has already been admitted that the Minsk Accords which were to prevent the war in Ukraine to begin with were just a ruse to buy time for Ukraine to build up its fighting strength. The former leader of Ukraine explicitly said so. The former leader of France, who was instrumental in the negotiations, explicitly said so. The former leader of Germany, who was also instrumental in the Minsk Accords, also explicitly said so. Who, then, in the West, would Katia expect to negotiate a peace agreement with that would have some shred of a chance at working?
Joe Biden won’t even be permitted on a debate stage for the Democratic Primaries, so it is doubtful he would be the person to hammer out the details of such an important treaty. There are multiple examples we might point to that demonstrate that: A. Joe Biden is not sufficiently in charge of his faculties to come to a workable agreement and B. Even if he was he would not be worthy of Katia’s trust. And until Biden comes clean on who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline, one could hardly blame Katia for not trusting President Biden, anyway.
Perhaps Biden could send Kamala Harris to work out the intricate details of an enduring peace plan with Katia. I could see that working, couldn’t you? Seriously, though, perhaps Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan could be sent in his stead. He is honest and trustworthy. Secretary Of State Antony Blinken seems like a real straight shooter and a man of integrity. Secretary Of Defense Lloyd Austin seems a fair and balanced person intent on doing right by all parties.
I apologize for descending into absurdities, but I have precious little to work with. And neither does Katia. Perhaps she can wait until after the 2024 elections in the hopes that there might be another leader of the United States capable of intelligent and serious discussions. Someone whose word can be trusted. Of course, realistically, that could only mean Donald Trump. Donald Trump may be her very best hope of earnest and honest conflict resolution. Think upon it, Katia, and despair.
Because even if Donald Trump is intent on bringing the Ukrainian conflict to an end, those who surround him will not be. The media that for four years basically accused President Trump of having a homosexual relationship with President Putin will not permit Trump to engage in any serious de-escalation of a war that they perhaps more than anyone else helped to start. And the deep state that opposed Trump for being a poor salesperson for their agenda, more than anyone, will do what they can to scupper any just and enduring peace, should Trump somehow arise to the occasion and prove himself capable of such greatness.
I myself hold no hope that Trump might rise even to the level of decency or adequacy. The man who tore up the anti-nuclear treaty with Iran, and then assassinated an Iranian ambassador while he was visiting Iraq on a diplomatic mission, would only appear promising to someone desperately clutching at straws. Which I’m sure by that point Katia would assuredly be doing.
What should Katia do? What can she do when dealing with a reality far different from, and more complicated than, the simplistic narrative unanimously propagated in the West? Whatever she does, if she acts in a manner that even slightly factors in the concerns of the Russian state and its people, she best be prepared to be compared to Adolph Hitler and Idi Amin.
Good luck, Katia.