Normalcy Bias Is Keeping Us From Panicking (Unfortunately)

The trend lines are all quite clear, yet we still look away:

-As technology advances, wars are becoming more and more destructive, especially world wars.
-Global temperatures continue to rise.
-Biodiversity is on the decline.
-Human populations continues to increase.
-Resources are diminishing.

While the situations continue to worsen, we do nothing to correct them. We leave things in the hands of the people and systems that created the problems and expect that they will fix them. It is clear they are doing nothing to lessen tensions between nations armed with nuclear weapons but instead seemingly do everything possible to exacerbate them. Not only is our obscene military spending escalating tensions around the world, the U.S. military is among the biggest contributors to climate change. It seems nobody is talking about population growth in the West, and nobody anywhere is doing anything about the loss of biodiversity.

It seems obvious to me — indeed I cannot imagine that it is not obvious to everybody — that we are headed towards disaster. Near-term disaster. I cannot see how anything other than drastic action is required, on multiple fronts. And yet it seems equally obvious that nobody in power has any interest in making drastic changes. They don’t even seem to be aware of the problems, let alone the scope of them. Furthermore, existing systems do not permit such measures to be implemented, nor do they allow people willing to take them on to get anywhere near the levers of power.

Seeing as how nobody with any degree of reach or influence is apparently going to do anything, it’s up to those who are aware and concerned to rouse people from their slumber and complacency. The problem we encounter in awakening the sleepers, as many of you may have noticed, is what psychologists refer to as “normalcy bias”. Below are some quotes from the book You Are Not So Smart regarding normalcy bias:

“The misconception: Your fight-or-flight instincts kick in and you panic when disaster strikes. The truth: You often become abnormally calm and pretend everything is normal in a crisis.”

“In any perilous event, like a sinking ship or a towering inferno…there is a chance you will become so overpowered by the perilous overflow of ambiguous information that you will do nothing at all. You will float away and leave a senseless statue in your place. You may even lie down. If no one comes to your rescue, you will die.

“…about 75 percent of people find it impossible to reason during a catastrophic event or impending doom. On the edges, the 15 percent or so on either side of the bell curve react either with unimpaired, heightened awareness or blubbering, confused panic.”

“Normalcy bias is stalling during a crisis and pretending everything will continue to be as fine and predictable as it was before. Those who defeat it act when others don’t. They move when others are considering whether or not they should.”

“Normalcy bias is self-soothing through believing everything is just fine. If you can still engage in your normal habits, still see the world as if nothing bad is happening, then your anxiety stays put. Normalcy bias is a state of mind out of which you are attempting to make everything OK by believing it still is.

“Normalcy bias is refusing to believe terrible events will include you even though you have every reason to think otherwise. The first thing you are likely to feel in the event of a disaster is the supreme need to feel safe and secure. When it becomes clear this is impossible, you drift away into a daydream where it is.”

“As your brain attempts to disseminate the data, your deepest desire is for everyone around you to assure you the bad thing isn’t real. You wait for this to happen past the point when it becomes obvious it will not.

“The holding pattern of normalcy bias continues until the ship lurches or the building shifts. You may remain placid until the tornado throws a car through your house or the hurricane snaps the power lines. If everyone else is milling around waiting for information, you will too.”

“The solution, according to Mikami, Ikeda, and other experts, is repetition on the part of those who can help, those who can see the danger better than you. If enough warnings are given and enough instructions are broadcast, then those things become the new normal and you will spring into action.”

So, you see, if you see the dangers more clearly than others or are more prepared to act upon them, you should not be afraid to speak up and speak often. People need help being switched into gear in moments of crisis. And it appears in times of multiple extreme crises, they are even harder to awaken from their somnambulism.

Don’t wait for others to start, don’t wait for leaders, that’s normalcy bias speaking, and normalcy bias can be deadly. Don’t worry about angering or annoying others, you are literally trying to save their lives and the life of the planet they’re living on. They will thank you for it once the crisis is over.

Act in love, for others and for the planet. Do not panic, people are looking for a way forward and they are looking for someone to lead them. Perhaps you are not a leader, but times make the man/woman. Once people break the inertia, once you and others begin to act, that will create the new normal, and you will feel much better as you work to solve the crises we are fated to confront. Be the first to adapt to the new normal, if possible; it will make it so much easier for the others.

A final thought from the book You Are Not So Smart on normalcy bias and why the media and our politicians will be ineffective in helping us to respond to the current crises: “Regular media overhyping and panic-building over issues like Y2K, swine flu, SARS, and the like help fuel normalcy bias on a global scale. Pundits on both sides of politics warn of crises that can be averted only by voting one way or the other. With so much crying wolf, it can be difficult to determine in the frenzied information landscape when to be alarmed, when it is not a drill.”

Best of luck, everyone. Do not panic, do not freeze, and do not despair. Ain’t nobody got time for that.